2020 Potential Economic Collapse

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Arwen Thebard
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Re: 2020 Potential Economic Collapse

Post by Arwen Thebard » Thu Jul 30, 2020 7:24 am

A good deal has happened since this thread started waaaayyyy back in March.

Gold, Silver and Crypto prices have risen substantially due to their perceived safe haven appeal.

Bond yields have gone down and the dollar is quickly following suit.

The FED [and most other CB's] are throwing trillions into propping up the stock and commodities markets, the inevitable outcome of which will be some form of inflation. [This is almost certainly happening already but not filtering through to the retail sectors yet.]

Millions of people have lost their jobs, temporarily or otherwise, and SME's have been decimated while the larger companies and industries have been bailed out, yet again.

Trade wars continue to escalate and leaders keep turning up global political tensions causing yet more volatility and uncertainty across all economic markets.

And perhaps worst of all the pensions market is imploding.

Despite all this obvious turmoil virtually no one I speak to has any clue about the crisis that is coming. Talk of COV19 will disappear as quickly as the Brexit chatter did, when this tsunami hits.

The MSM wont tell them, the politicians and bankers wont tell them and just like in 2007/8 they will wake up one morning and it will be all over the news ["SURPRISE - SURPRISE"] that another crisis 'no-one-could-have-foreseen' has hit. The difference this time is that the collapse will include the banking / global economies / pensions / currencies / stock markets / commodities / and all other sectors.

IMO we are about to encounter an economic depression on a leviathan scale, a perfect storm of factors all arriving at once, and I wouldn't take a bet that it wont happen before the end of 2020. November anyone?
Arwen The Bard

"What did you learn today?"

Arzosah
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Re: 2020 Potential Economic Collapse

Post by Arzosah » Thu Jul 30, 2020 9:17 am

I've snipped this down to the bits I want to answer, but thats a really good summary post, Arwen, thanks for that.
Arwen Thebard wrote:
Thu Jul 30, 2020 7:24 am
And perhaps worst of all the pensions market is imploding.
I'm on a pensions webinar from Aviva tomorrow, and I'm thinking of doing some drawdown, keeping under the tax threshold, just to get some money out of the clutches of the industry. It'll be interesting to hear the approach they take.
IMO we are about to encounter an economic depression on a leviathan scale, a perfect storm of factors all arriving at once, and I wouldn't take a bet that it wont happen before the end of 2020. November anyone?
It might be :( Even in spite of all the support schemes, there have been huge redundancies and businesses going bankrupt. And the support schemes are starting to taper (though some are being increased or renewed? I don't have chapter and verse on that).

jansman
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Re: 2020 Potential Economic Collapse

Post by jansman » Thu Jul 30, 2020 4:06 pm

Ironically, I have details of a pension that is due in January. I have to decide what to do. I will defer it and keep working, as it is not going to yield a sufficient income anyway. I have that choice, but many will need or want to retire. It’s gonna be a rough ride though.
In three words I can sum up everything I have learned about life: It goes on.

Robert Frost.

Covid 19: After that level of weirdness ,any situation is certainly possible.

Me.

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Arwen Thebard
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Re: 2020 Potential Economic Collapse

Post by Arwen Thebard » Thu Jul 30, 2020 7:56 pm

After years of watching my pension fund being mismanaged and effectively loosing money, yet still being charged management fees and account service costs :twisted: I bit the bullet and took out the whole lot in one go, paid the maximum amount of tax :twisted: and now look after my own fund 100%.

In the past five years I've increased my pot by a very decent amount, more than enough to cover the tax I had to pay, while the professionals over that same time frame have managed to loose money on their clients pension investments. Most importantly though MY MONEY IS IN MY POSSESSION.

Someone in the Telegraph a while back calculated the same amount of money, invested monthly, into an easy access, high street savings account (not ISA), with a 90 day withdrawal period, over 25 years, would have out performed the majority (66% I think) of pension fund managers by between 28% and 36%,

About 10% of that difference was due to not paying the fees and charges fund managers take and it would all have been without any risk. Makes you think dont it. (I will try to find the article link)
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Panther
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Re: 2020 Potential Economic Collapse

Post by Panther » Sat Aug 01, 2020 7:50 am

Arwen Thebard wrote:
Thu Jul 30, 2020 7:56 pm
After years of watching my pension fund being mismanaged and effectively loosing money, yet still being charged management fees and account service costs :twisted: I bit the bullet and took out the whole lot in one go, paid the maximum amount of tax :twisted: and now look after my own fund 100%.

In the past five years I've increased my pot by a very decent amount, more than enough to cover the tax I had to pay, while the professionals over that same time frame have managed to loose money on their clients pension investments. Most importantly though MY MONEY IS IN MY POSSESSION.

Someone in the Telegraph a while back calculated the same amount of money, invested monthly, into an easy access, high street savings account (not ISA), with a 90 day withdrawal period, over 25 years, would have out performed the majority (66% I think) of pension fund managers by between 28% and 36%,

About 10% of that difference was due to not paying the fees and charges fund managers take and it would all have been without any risk. Makes you think dont it. (I will try to find the article link)
We too now manage all savings for ourselves. Just over twenty years ago we had a sum of money to invest and sought guidance from a financial advisor at a local building society. We stipulated that our money should only go into "safe" investments. Unfortunately a year or two later redundancy forced us to unlock and retrieve our money. We realized we'd have to pay an early withdrawal fee. We hadn't been made aware of another hidden penalty clause in the agreement though. Our complaints of poor and incomplete advice were of course brushed off. We took the case to the financial ombudsman but still got nowhere. The hidden penalties resulted in several thousand pounds loss.

We now handle our savings for ourselves. We use mainly one year bonds and instant access accounts. The banks regularly ask us if we'd like to come in for a review of our savings but we politely decline their offers of help or advice. As I like to point out to them we didn't bankrupt ourselves a few years ago! We didn't need to be rescued and bailed out by the government!
There may be trouble ahead
But while there's moonlight and music
And love and romance
Let's face the music and dance

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Arwen Thebard
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Re: 2020 Potential Economic Collapse

Post by Arwen Thebard » Sat Aug 01, 2020 8:01 am

Nicely done Panther, I wish more people understood the rip off charges and restrictive practices.

So many people are just too scared to take responsibility for handling their own financial investments believing that it is somehow mystical or so complicated that only so called professionals are allowed to do it.

I know first hand several pension fund managers and you would not believe the selfish manner and unprofessional attitude they take in dealing with their clients money. They often act dishonestly and fraudulently in many cases [IMO] and the FCA and banking ombudsmen rarely find against them.

You did well to get your money out when you did Panther, all power to you.
Arwen The Bard

"What did you learn today?"

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Arwen Thebard
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Re: 2020 Potential Economic Collapse

Post by Arwen Thebard » Sat Aug 01, 2020 8:07 am

"I'm on a pensions webinar from Aviva tomorrow, and I'm thinking of doing some drawdown, keeping under the tax threshold, just to get some money out of the clutches of the industry. It'll be interesting to hear the approach they take."

Without giving too much detail away, I would love to hear what direction they want you to go in Arzosah.
Arwen The Bard

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Arzosah
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Re: 2020 Potential Economic Collapse

Post by Arzosah » Sat Aug 01, 2020 9:19 am

Arwen Thebard wrote:
Sat Aug 01, 2020 8:07 am
"I'm on a pensions webinar from Aviva tomorrow, and I'm thinking of doing some drawdown, keeping under the tax threshold, just to get some money out of the clutches of the industry. It'll be interesting to hear the approach they take."

Without giving too much detail away, I would love to hear what direction they want you to go in Arzosah.
Embarrassingly, I completely forgot on the day :oops: However, its repeated later this month. Gives me time to read through the money booklets from the government's free service,whatever its called.

What *I'm* in might be called a state of denial. Not just a river in Egypt ...

The pension money I have is in three little pots - it only totals about £60k, which I realise is a lot of money but its a tiddler in pension terms - its too small for some firms to even look at, even as a total.

What I'm wondering about right now is what I can buy thats useful in prepping terms, without having a fitter etc inside my house. Especially in the arena of cooking/heating. I have a little bit of most things, but drawdown gives me the chance to buy something substantial.

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Arwen Thebard
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Re: 2020 Potential Economic Collapse

Post by Arwen Thebard » Sun Aug 02, 2020 12:47 pm

"Bank Of Ireland Is Now Imposing Negative Rates On Cash Held In Pensions"
Only applicable to corporate accounts at the moment but as the CEO says in the article;

"As I sit here today we have no plans to charge negative interest rates for our personal customers but given the way everything happens, like Covid, so unexpectedly, it is not something I can rule out forever."
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redskies
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Re: 2020 Potential Economic Collapse

Post by redskies » Sun Aug 02, 2020 1:46 pm

Arwen Thebard wrote:
Thu Jul 30, 2020 7:24 am
A good deal has happened since this thread started waaaayyyy back in March.

Gold, Silver and Crypto prices have risen substantially due to their perceived safe haven appeal.

Bond yields have gone down and the dollar is quickly following suit.

The FED [and most other CB's] are throwing trillions into propping up the stock and commodities markets, the inevitable outcome of which will be some form of inflation. [This is almost certainly happening already but not filtering through to the retail sectors yet.]

Millions of people have lost their jobs, temporarily or otherwise, and SME's have been decimated while the larger companies and industries have been bailed out, yet again.

Trade wars continue to escalate and leaders keep turning up global political tensions causing yet more volatility and uncertainty across all economic markets.

And perhaps worst of all the pensions market is imploding.

Despite all this obvious turmoil virtually no one I speak to has any clue about the crisis that is coming. Talk of COV19 will disappear as quickly as the Brexit chatter did, when this tsunami hits.

The MSM wont tell them, the politicians and bankers wont tell them and just like in 2007/8 they will wake up one morning and it will be all over the news ["SURPRISE - SURPRISE"] that another crisis 'no-one-could-have-foreseen' has hit. The difference this time is that the collapse will include the banking / global economies / pensions / currencies / stock markets / commodities / and all other sectors.

IMO we are about to encounter an economic depression on a leviathan scale, a perfect storm of factors all arriving at once, and I wouldn't take a bet that it wont happen before the end of 2020. November anyone?

No bet. I don't know much about the markets, but have seen a lot of articles & comments about interference from certain gov agencies, which is, in itself, an alarm bell for me. Pick the metaphor that works for you, but it all falling over, going splat with excessive spatter very soon would not be a surprise.

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