New prepper like brand new

[Yorkshire Andy]

Arrrrr everyone is very welcoming and informative thanks for all your replies does anyone think the power outages will be caused by a cme or other things

I'd go for lack of capacity due to reliance on wind / solar over cme pick the bones out of this:

https://www.nationalgrid.com/stories/gr ... ossibility

[Frnc]

Cheshire Resilience do a pdf you can download. It has two tables for disasters. Both are similar - the horizontal axis is likelihood or plausability, vertical is impact. So top right corner is high likelihoof, high inpact.
https://cheshireresilience.org.uk/docs/crfrisk.pdf

[Arzosah]

I'd agree with Andy, above, but a CME could certainly happen, and it *will*, at some stage. The effects it will have is another issue altogether - more serious in the USA than for us, for instance, because of the length of their transmission wires - we have a grid, the interconnections do ... interconnect ... a lot more.

It might be that we get smacked by a CME that will destroy everything electronic - its much, much more likely that it will be a less powerful one, so precautions might well still be useful. By definition, we don't want people preparing for the worst case only, that's counter productive, the smaller events should still be safeguarded against, that's what I think.

HTH

[Arzosah]

Just seen Frnc's linkie to the Cheshire documents - I love an impact/likelihood grid!

[Yorkshire Andy]

, we don't want people preparing for the worst case only, that's counter productive, the smaller events should still be safeguarded against, that's what I think.

HTH

It'd my opinion too..

The little issues are more likely but the kit overlaps into the big issues ..

That Tilly lamp you got for power cuts... Well come the cme you'll have light (if you have matches and a lighter )

First aid training/ kit will come in handy in all situations be it tripping over the dog and spraining your ankle to treating burns from impromptu cooking shtf

Fire fighting kit / training be it a Sunday dinner cooking issue or a big emp = power surges = potential electrical fires....

Camping stove handy for loss of utilities from Bob the builder digging up the local gas main or leccy cable down the street to being able to cook a tin of beans after a emp ...

I'm sure you get the idea



Just think 5 years ago the threat of pandemic was probably seen as small by many, Who would have forseen the lockdowns and toilet paper shortage

[Arzosah]

The little issues are more likely but the kit overlaps into the big issues ..

That Tilly lamp you got for power cuts... Well come the cme you'll have light (if you have matches and a lighter )

First aid training/ kit will come in handy in all situations be it tripping over the dog and spraining your ankle to treating burns from impromptu cooking shtf

Fire fighting kit / training be it a Sunday dinner cooking issue or a big emp = power surges = potential electrical fires....

Camping stove handy for loss of utilities from Bob the builder digging up the local gas main or leccy cable down the street to being able to cook a tin of beans after a emp ...

I'm sure you get the idea



Just think 5 years ago the threat of pandemic was probably seen as small by many, Who would have forseen the lockdowns and toilet paper shortage

Best buds, you and me

[Frnc]

Just seen Frnc's linkie to the Cheshire documents - I love an impact/likelihood grid!

There's a separate one below it for malicious disasters. It uses plausibility rather than likelihood, bit it's the same sort of thing.

[Frnc]

Just think 5 years ago the threat of pandemic was probably seen as small by many, Who would have forseen the lockdowns and toilet paper shortage

5 years ago I read that pandemic was the most likely emergency. I think it was on a government site. Also on the Cheshire Resilience risk sheet it is the most likely (they list it as Pandemic influenza though). The govenment thought it would be an influenza strain though. The risk of pandemic might be increasing with global warming, deforestation etc.

[bobble]

Hiya Mimi, welcome from a couple of pensioners on Merseyside!

[jennyjj01]

Just seen Frnc's linkie to the Cheshire documents - I love an impact/likelihood grid!

AOL! Yes. Me Too. Decent document, but like the rest of that site it's >SIX YEARS out of date. The Emergency Response Doc was written 2017: Looks rather like someone on Halton Borough Council had to keep an intern busy.

The grid is a bit guesswork and we can populate our own copy of the grid with our perception. Because it's particularly set for Cheshire (2018) , you should review your own anyway. I see that grid has nothing in it for likelihood=1 or likelihood=5, so I think it's a bit wrong.

It does highlight how we get max bang for our buck by not focussing on absurdly unlikely scenarios and prep for things that are either high risk, or high impact, or both. But it also shows how we can cover multiple scenarios in one plan, such as an extended pantry which is useful for most risks.

As one who lives in Cheshire, I wish they'd pay equal attention to the risk of getting the suspension ripped off my car by the impact of a pot-hole! Grrr.

, we don't want people preparing for the worst case only, that's counter productive, the smaller events should still be safeguarded against, that's what I think.

HTH

The little issues are more likely but the kit overlaps into the big issues ..

Just think 5 years ago the threat of pandemic was probably seen as small by many, Who would have foreseen the lockdowns and toilet paper shortage

We would ! We Did! They laughed!

It's been an insane last few years. We preppers are the ones with the foresight and until recently we would have been laughed at as the insane ones, with our stash under the bed and our tilly lamp collection.

Fore-sight is the burden that we preppers carry.