We could do with 10 threads, one for each. This is the list off the download.
Pandemic .............................................................................................................. 13
Flooding ................................................................................................................ 16
Severe weather ..................................................................................................... 19
Loss of critical national infrastructure ................................................................. 23
Animal diseases .................................................................................................... 26
Environmental incidents ...................................................................................... 28
Industrial incidents ............................................................................................... 30
Transport incidents .............................................................................................. 32
Malicious attacks .................................................................................................. 35
Cyber risks .............................................................................................
The 10 buttons on the web page are
flooding, severe weather, pandemic, industrial incident, malicious attack, loss of service, cyber threats, animal diseases, transport incidents, and environmental.
So "loss of service" = "loss of critical national infrastructure", namely electricity, water, gas, oil/fuel, transport, telecoms, food, health and financial services. A big topic!
Moving from Prepare to Implement.
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GeraldTheBonzai
- Posts: 479
- Joined: Fri Oct 08, 2021 7:52 pm
Re: Moving from Prepare to Implement.
Big long post coming here - sorry. Will try and work out how to capture things into a single doc..
What I've done is taken the National Risk Register (NRR) and stuffed it into my AI Prepper model. This is a model I have created based on lots of prep relevant documents. For the NRR, I asked the model to find and discard all those risks that, basically, were so catastrophic there was very little point of prepping for. For instance full blown nuclear war - don't think any of us have a hardened bunker and NBC suites to hand (but I might be wrong).
Based on that, it discarded:
Larger-scale CBRN attacks
The scale of immediate fatalities and the persistent, widespread environmental toxicity from a large-scale chemical, biological, or nuclear strike exceeds any rational individual mitigation. The aftermath involves long-term ecosystem hostility that makes self-sufficiency a "myth"
Civil nuclear accident
A major radiation release from a domestic site could contaminate vast regions for generations. While initial evacuation is possible, the scale of long-term displacement and the total loss of habitable land make it a "true end of life" scenario for the individual
Radiation release from overseas nuclear site
Similar to domestic accidents, the lack of control over trans-border environmental toxicity and the resulting international humanitarian crisis involves impacts that individual stores cannot mitigate over the multi-year timelines required for remediation
Volcanic Eruption (VEI7+)
A VEI7+ eruption is described as causing northern hemisphere devastation, multi-year global crop failures, and permanent climate shifts. Individual prepper inventories are insufficient for the resulting multi-year global famines and total supply chain extinction
Nuclear miscalculation
While rated "Significant" at a national level, the escalation into global nuclear conflict is categorized in prepper literature as an "irreversible" event where the "lights of civilization go out" for a very long time, exceeding any "danger prevention" capability
So those are the nightmare scenarios. Next I asked it to look at the level 5 impact risks - the worse ones. Based on what the AI knows about prepping, I asked it to give an assessment on how the risk might impact an individual prepper rather than at the national level.:
Highest Probability Risks: Individual vs. National Impact
Risk ID,Risk Name,National Impact Level,Individual Prepper Impact Level,Prepper Mitigation Logic
3,Terrorist attacks in public locations,4 (Significant),2 (Limited)
Nationally, this causes mass fatalities and disrupts essential services
. A prepper mitigates this by maintaining deep pantries (7+ days of food and water), allowing them to stay away from high-density areas or "adaptive purchasing" (panic buying) sites during periods of heightened tension
30b,UK critical financial infrastructure failure,3 (Moderate),1 (Minor),
This involves a failure of payment systems like Visa or Bacs
. Preppers typically maintain physical cash reserves and engage in local barter or mutual aid networks, turning a systemic digital crisis into a minor inconvenience
48,Disaster response in UK Overseas Territories,3 (Moderate),1 (Minor),
While this strains national humanitarian and military resources, it has almost no physical impact on a domestic individual
. A prepper's focus on supply chain independence ensures that global logistical ripples do not affect their personal security
6,Assassination of a high-profile figure,2 (Limited),1 (Minor)
The national impact is primarily psychological and social
. For a prepper, heightened situational awareness and the use of off-grid communications (Mesh or HAM radio) allow them to monitor and navigate any "short-lived" community tensions with minimal disruption
59a,Major outbreak of plant pest (Xylella),2 (Limited),1 (Minor),
Nationally, this threatens the plant nursery sector and biodiversity
. A prepper utilizing permaculture design or diverse home food production maintains high species diversity, protecting personal food security from the failure of commercial monocultures
So the takeaway here is that, as we suspected, what might be a major impact at a national level is probably something what would have a significantly smaller impact at the personal level. I did that for all the other risks, based on impact. I have a lot of data - more than I can post here without finding a better way.
But, now lets reverse the analysis. Now that I had a view on the risks from an individual prepper perspective, I got it to find the most relevant risks that we should focus on, from an individual perspective.
Risk ID,Risk Name,Prepper Impact Level,National Impact Level,Reasoning for High Impact
56,Pandemic,3 (Moderate),5 (Catastrophic),
Despite deep pantries, the prepper demographic (often older or medical-dependent) remains highly susceptible to healthcare system overload and the disruption of prescription supply chains
9,Medium-scale CBRN attacks,3 (Moderate),4 (Significant),
While a prepper can shelter-in-place, the persistent toxicity of the environment and the potential need for mass evacuation can render a "hardened homestead" untenable
51,High Temperatures and Heatwaves,3 (Moderate),4 (Significant),
Extreme heat disproportionately impacts older adults and strains water/energy backups; even decentralized systems can lose efficiency in record temperatures
So thats our top priorities, according to AI. And look what comes in at the end of the list
What I've done is taken the National Risk Register (NRR) and stuffed it into my AI Prepper model. This is a model I have created based on lots of prep relevant documents. For the NRR, I asked the model to find and discard all those risks that, basically, were so catastrophic there was very little point of prepping for. For instance full blown nuclear war - don't think any of us have a hardened bunker and NBC suites to hand (but I might be wrong).
Based on that, it discarded:
Larger-scale CBRN attacks
The scale of immediate fatalities and the persistent, widespread environmental toxicity from a large-scale chemical, biological, or nuclear strike exceeds any rational individual mitigation. The aftermath involves long-term ecosystem hostility that makes self-sufficiency a "myth"
Civil nuclear accident
A major radiation release from a domestic site could contaminate vast regions for generations. While initial evacuation is possible, the scale of long-term displacement and the total loss of habitable land make it a "true end of life" scenario for the individual
Radiation release from overseas nuclear site
Similar to domestic accidents, the lack of control over trans-border environmental toxicity and the resulting international humanitarian crisis involves impacts that individual stores cannot mitigate over the multi-year timelines required for remediation
Volcanic Eruption (VEI7+)
A VEI7+ eruption is described as causing northern hemisphere devastation, multi-year global crop failures, and permanent climate shifts. Individual prepper inventories are insufficient for the resulting multi-year global famines and total supply chain extinction
Nuclear miscalculation
While rated "Significant" at a national level, the escalation into global nuclear conflict is categorized in prepper literature as an "irreversible" event where the "lights of civilization go out" for a very long time, exceeding any "danger prevention" capability
So those are the nightmare scenarios. Next I asked it to look at the level 5 impact risks - the worse ones. Based on what the AI knows about prepping, I asked it to give an assessment on how the risk might impact an individual prepper rather than at the national level.:
Highest Probability Risks: Individual vs. National Impact
Risk ID,Risk Name,National Impact Level,Individual Prepper Impact Level,Prepper Mitigation Logic
3,Terrorist attacks in public locations,4 (Significant),2 (Limited)
Nationally, this causes mass fatalities and disrupts essential services
. A prepper mitigates this by maintaining deep pantries (7+ days of food and water), allowing them to stay away from high-density areas or "adaptive purchasing" (panic buying) sites during periods of heightened tension
30b,UK critical financial infrastructure failure,3 (Moderate),1 (Minor),
This involves a failure of payment systems like Visa or Bacs
. Preppers typically maintain physical cash reserves and engage in local barter or mutual aid networks, turning a systemic digital crisis into a minor inconvenience
48,Disaster response in UK Overseas Territories,3 (Moderate),1 (Minor),
While this strains national humanitarian and military resources, it has almost no physical impact on a domestic individual
. A prepper's focus on supply chain independence ensures that global logistical ripples do not affect their personal security
6,Assassination of a high-profile figure,2 (Limited),1 (Minor)
The national impact is primarily psychological and social
. For a prepper, heightened situational awareness and the use of off-grid communications (Mesh or HAM radio) allow them to monitor and navigate any "short-lived" community tensions with minimal disruption
59a,Major outbreak of plant pest (Xylella),2 (Limited),1 (Minor),
Nationally, this threatens the plant nursery sector and biodiversity
. A prepper utilizing permaculture design or diverse home food production maintains high species diversity, protecting personal food security from the failure of commercial monocultures
So the takeaway here is that, as we suspected, what might be a major impact at a national level is probably something what would have a significantly smaller impact at the personal level. I did that for all the other risks, based on impact. I have a lot of data - more than I can post here without finding a better way.
But, now lets reverse the analysis. Now that I had a view on the risks from an individual prepper perspective, I got it to find the most relevant risks that we should focus on, from an individual perspective.
Risk ID,Risk Name,Prepper Impact Level,National Impact Level,Reasoning for High Impact
56,Pandemic,3 (Moderate),5 (Catastrophic),
Despite deep pantries, the prepper demographic (often older or medical-dependent) remains highly susceptible to healthcare system overload and the disruption of prescription supply chains
9,Medium-scale CBRN attacks,3 (Moderate),4 (Significant),
While a prepper can shelter-in-place, the persistent toxicity of the environment and the potential need for mass evacuation can render a "hardened homestead" untenable
51,High Temperatures and Heatwaves,3 (Moderate),4 (Significant),
Extreme heat disproportionately impacts older adults and strains water/energy backups; even decentralized systems can lose efficiency in record temperatures
So thats our top priorities, according to AI. And look what comes in at the end of the list
Re: Moving from Prepare to Implement.
It looks to me as if I need to up my prepping game.
I need to: (in no particular order) keep more cash at home and therefore find somewhere safe but not impossible for family to find should I no longer be here.
Continue to order prescription medicines early. I wonder how early will make the surgery suspicious?
Get more torches and batteries. I wonder where I can find out about the best ones to use........
Store more dried food in order to be less reliant on freezers.
Store more water. Our water butts are empty. We tried without success to find out when we last had any usable rain here but it was several weeks ago. The water butts were empty before that as Mr A had been reorganising them (we have a few in series) and the rain didn't fill them properly due to the downpipe being blocked (maintenance fail there). I am now only watering the vegetables and also plants I don't want to lose so the rest are on their own.
Seriously look at solar systems instead of just amusing myself daydreaming.
Most of these things I can do fairly secretly because if any parcels arrive I just tell Mr A its sewing stuff until we actually need things and then he congratulates me on my forethought and yet again accuses me of being a doomsday prepper.
I need to: (in no particular order) keep more cash at home and therefore find somewhere safe but not impossible for family to find should I no longer be here.
Continue to order prescription medicines early. I wonder how early will make the surgery suspicious?
Get more torches and batteries. I wonder where I can find out about the best ones to use........
Store more dried food in order to be less reliant on freezers.
Store more water. Our water butts are empty. We tried without success to find out when we last had any usable rain here but it was several weeks ago. The water butts were empty before that as Mr A had been reorganising them (we have a few in series) and the rain didn't fill them properly due to the downpipe being blocked (maintenance fail there). I am now only watering the vegetables and also plants I don't want to lose so the rest are on their own.
Seriously look at solar systems instead of just amusing myself daydreaming.
Most of these things I can do fairly secretly because if any parcels arrive I just tell Mr A its sewing stuff until we actually need things and then he congratulates me on my forethought and yet again accuses me of being a doomsday prepper.
Re: Moving from Prepare to Implement.
Maybe make a project of bringing him around. Episodes of successful forethought do help. It was a great relief to reveal my prepping foible to Mr JJ.
Graceful Degradation! Prepping's objective summed up in two words. Turning Disaster into Mild Inconvenience by the power of fore-thought
Not Feeling Optimistic. Let me be wrong
Not Feeling Optimistic. Let me be wrong
Re: Moving from Prepare to Implement.
You're thinking along the same lines as I was, ie that 74 risks needs prioritisation and simplification. But since I saw Cheshire Resilience have dropped the matrices (they used to have two, one was for malicious), and adopted 10 topics instead, I think I'm going to focus on those.GeraldTheBonzai wrote: ↑Sun Jul 19, 2026 2:53 pm Big long post coming here - sorry. Will try and work out how to capture things into a single doc..
What I've done is taken the National Risk Register (NRR) and stuffed it into my AI Prepper model. This is a model I have created based on lots of prep relevant documents. For the NRR, I asked the model to find and discard all those risks that, basically, were so catastrophic there was very little point of prepping for. For instance full blown nuclear war - don't think any of us have a hardened bunker and NBC suites to hand (but I might be wrong).
Based on that, it discarded:
Larger-scale CBRN attacks
The scale of immediate fatalities and the persistent, widespread environmental toxicity from a large-scale chemical, biological, or nuclear strike exceeds any rational individual mitigation. The aftermath involves long-term ecosystem hostility that makes self-sufficiency a "myth"
Civil nuclear accident
A major radiation release from a domestic site could contaminate vast regions for generations. While initial evacuation is possible, the scale of long-term displacement and the total loss of habitable land make it a "true end of life" scenario for the individual
Radiation release from overseas nuclear site
Similar to domestic accidents, the lack of control over trans-border environmental toxicity and the resulting international humanitarian crisis involves impacts that individual stores cannot mitigate over the multi-year timelines required for remediation
Volcanic Eruption (VEI7+)
A VEI7+ eruption is described as causing northern hemisphere devastation, multi-year global crop failures, and permanent climate shifts. Individual prepper inventories are insufficient for the resulting multi-year global famines and total supply chain extinction
Nuclear miscalculation
While rated "Significant" at a national level, the escalation into global nuclear conflict is categorized in prepper literature as an "irreversible" event where the "lights of civilization go out" for a very long time, exceeding any "danger prevention" capability
So those are the nightmare scenarios. Next I asked it to look at the level 5 impact risks - the worse ones. Based on what the AI knows about prepping, I asked it to give an assessment on how the risk might impact an individual prepper rather than at the national level.:
Highest Probability Risks: Individual vs. National Impact
Risk ID,Risk Name,National Impact Level,Individual Prepper Impact Level,Prepper Mitigation Logic
3,Terrorist attacks in public locations,4 (Significant),2 (Limited)
Nationally, this causes mass fatalities and disrupts essential services
. A prepper mitigates this by maintaining deep pantries (7+ days of food and water), allowing them to stay away from high-density areas or "adaptive purchasing" (panic buying) sites during periods of heightened tension
30b,UK critical financial infrastructure failure,3 (Moderate),1 (Minor),
This involves a failure of payment systems like Visa or Bacs
. Preppers typically maintain physical cash reserves and engage in local barter or mutual aid networks, turning a systemic digital crisis into a minor inconvenience
48,Disaster response in UK Overseas Territories,3 (Moderate),1 (Minor),
While this strains national humanitarian and military resources, it has almost no physical impact on a domestic individual
. A prepper's focus on supply chain independence ensures that global logistical ripples do not affect their personal security
6,Assassination of a high-profile figure,2 (Limited),1 (Minor)
The national impact is primarily psychological and social
. For a prepper, heightened situational awareness and the use of off-grid communications (Mesh or HAM radio) allow them to monitor and navigate any "short-lived" community tensions with minimal disruption
59a,Major outbreak of plant pest (Xylella),2 (Limited),1 (Minor),
Nationally, this threatens the plant nursery sector and biodiversity
. A prepper utilizing permaculture design or diverse home food production maintains high species diversity, protecting personal food security from the failure of commercial monocultures
So the takeaway here is that, as we suspected, what might be a major impact at a national level is probably something what would have a significantly smaller impact at the personal level. I did that for all the other risks, based on impact. I have a lot of data - more than I can post here without finding a better way.
But, now lets reverse the analysis. Now that I had a view on the risks from an individual prepper perspective, I got it to find the most relevant risks that we should focus on, from an individual perspective.
Risk ID,Risk Name,Prepper Impact Level,National Impact Level,Reasoning for High Impact
56,Pandemic,3 (Moderate),5 (Catastrophic),
Despite deep pantries, the prepper demographic (often older or medical-dependent) remains highly susceptible to healthcare system overload and the disruption of prescription supply chains
9,Medium-scale CBRN attacks,3 (Moderate),4 (Significant),
While a prepper can shelter-in-place, the persistent toxicity of the environment and the potential need for mass evacuation can render a "hardened homestead" untenable
51,High Temperatures and Heatwaves,3 (Moderate),4 (Significant),
Extreme heat disproportionately impacts older adults and strains water/energy backups; even decentralized systems can lose efficiency in record temperatures
So thats our top priorities, according to AI. And look what comes in at the end of the list
https://www.cheshireresilience.org.uk/key-risks/
Topics are flooding, severe weather, pandemic, industrial incident, malicious attack, loss of service (electricity, water, gas, oil/fuel, transport, telecoms, food, health and financial services), cyber threats, animal diseases, transport incidents, and environmental.
The download (bottom of page) is also good as it can be on a phone and not need internet. It covers the same ten topics.
For anyone not aware, this is an official website. The government prep page links to it. There is also a Manchester one, and others.
Re: Moving from Prepare to Implement.
Ara
It sound like you could move the water preps more open easily if you are on a hosepipe ban.
E.g organise greywater use kit for your non food plants to recycle bath or shower water and talk about the repeated total outages in Kent and Cryptosporidium in Devon & how annoying and difficult it is to have to queue for water and how helpful it would be to have some in stock and the ability to keep it safe
It sound like you could move the water preps more open easily if you are on a hosepipe ban.
E.g organise greywater use kit for your non food plants to recycle bath or shower water and talk about the repeated total outages in Kent and Cryptosporidium in Devon & how annoying and difficult it is to have to queue for water and how helpful it would be to have some in stock and the ability to keep it safe
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Winterprep
- Posts: 165
- Joined: Thu Oct 15, 2020 7:55 am
Re: Moving from Prepare to Implement.
I’m not prepping for any specific incident.
My view is that by covering all the basics of food,shelter,water,health and fuel which is broken down into cooking/heating/ power and a reserve of fuel for the vehicle you then can cover a lot of bases.
I’m not worried about my house flooding other than a burst pipe.I’m not prepping for a Nuclear exchange.I also don’t let prepping take over my life waiting for something to happen and not enjoying what’s out there just now!
Keep prepping in a way that suits you and your family.
WP.
My view is that by covering all the basics of food,shelter,water,health and fuel which is broken down into cooking/heating/ power and a reserve of fuel for the vehicle you then can cover a lot of bases.
I’m not worried about my house flooding other than a burst pipe.I’m not prepping for a Nuclear exchange.I also don’t let prepping take over my life waiting for something to happen and not enjoying what’s out there just now!
Keep prepping in a way that suits you and your family.
WP.
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Ahastyatom
- Posts: 118
- Joined: Wed Jun 11, 2014 1:26 pm
Re: Moving from Prepare to Implement.
This is on my list too, but I'm also going to include small change. We had a recent power cut on our local high street, no problem most of the shops just pulled out a notebook and calculator and went cash only. However by mid-morning our local was exact change only. It seems a lot of people kept a note in the back of their purse/wallet but no change and they quickly started to run out of change.
Re: Moving from Prepare to Implement.
100% in agreement - the shit has definitely started to hit the fan - slowly - but it will speed up and then the majority of the population will be on the back foot.GeraldTheBonzai wrote: ↑Fri Jul 17, 2026 11:16 am Many years ago, I worked on a system that would become part of the Critical National Infrastructure. During the development and testing phases, we had spent a lot of effort writing recovery docs and processes. We had even tried them out to check that they worked. Prior to going live, the project got a new Chief Operations Officer. About a month after starting, he called a meeting really early in the morning - people were still on their way in. He got everyone onto the floor and announced "Assume the system has been compromised. Implement the complete disaster recovery plan, now".
It was chaos. We had done things in isolation, but had never gone from the initial "something bad has happened" to the "now we need to live with it and recover" states.
I have lots of lists and "plans" that I implement during the year. Ordering fuel for the winter, making sure the car is serviced, getting gardening done. But these are all sort of "mini" preps. As we have seen in other threads, there is a hell of a lot going on in the world at the moment, at the national macro level. I made the point recently that, to me, it feels like we have tipped over some threshold - the things we have been preparing for are now coming to fruition.
So my thoughts for this thread is to go to that next step. Its not "what do we need to prep for" but more "is it time to start activating those plans?". What are the criteria we should be looking for to prompt us to start implementing things?
At home, we've had several conversations along the lines of "you know, maybe we ought to do X/ buy Y / fix Z at some point...". With the way things are going at the moment, the mindset has changed - we WILL do X, we will buy Y, and Z is getting fixed, pronto.
I am now actively stockpiling medications and increasing my first aid stocks. When we go shopping, we are intentionally looking to add things to the trolley that can be stored - not just to replace things that have been used up, but to increase our reserves.
So what are the triggers? What event needs to happen for us to say "the sh*t is actually hitting the fan now". I suspect the general population wont do anything until the lights go out (looking at you NESO..). I'd rather get ahead of the herd.
Caveat: No politics. Move on - assume its happening. Practical prepping implementation activities.
I am doing the same as you re: medications and first aid, and have recently bought a foldable 60w portable solar panel (in addition to my existing 100w panel for the Jackery) that I can hang out of window to charge devices up if needed. I've also diversified my income streams so that I've got more than one opportunity to earn money; I do work training AI models online and I am signed up, have completed my induction and am fully insured to deliver for Amazon Flex (just haven't had time to do any yet!) as the job market is in a bit of a state.
Re: Moving from Prepare to Implement.
Jenny - yes, I am gradually mentioning ideas to Mr A who often agrees but then, some days later, tells me about HIS ideas which were the ones put into his mind by me! He has quite happily lived with my "good pantry" for nearly 40 years now.
GillyB - it would be extremely unlikely for us to have a hosepipe ban here as our water supply comes from a very large reservoir built for expected industrial expansion that never happened. We had cryptosporidium in our water in a previous house (back in the time Mr A was working for the famous water company) and all they told us was to boil water for 2 minutes before drinking it. Any problems would more likely be from burst water mains and the like. He actually agrees with me on the subject of water butts for the garden but thinks I'm a bit over the top because there is bottled water in the pantry.
Ahastyatom - I would never have thought about keeping change and had just considered notes. When the Co op had a problem with hackers, their local shop would only accept cash which was fine for me as I always have some in my purse. Some people were having to go out empty-handed.
Now I'm off to seriously research portable solar.
GillyB - it would be extremely unlikely for us to have a hosepipe ban here as our water supply comes from a very large reservoir built for expected industrial expansion that never happened. We had cryptosporidium in our water in a previous house (back in the time Mr A was working for the famous water company) and all they told us was to boil water for 2 minutes before drinking it. Any problems would more likely be from burst water mains and the like. He actually agrees with me on the subject of water butts for the garden but thinks I'm a bit over the top because there is bottled water in the pantry.
Ahastyatom - I would never have thought about keeping change and had just considered notes. When the Co op had a problem with hackers, their local shop would only accept cash which was fine for me as I always have some in my purse. Some people were having to go out empty-handed.
Now I'm off to seriously research portable solar.