Brexit in October?

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Deeps
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Re: Brexit in October?

Post by Deeps » Thu Sep 12, 2019 6:09 am


Arzosah
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Re: Brexit in October?

Post by Arzosah » Thu Sep 12, 2019 8:38 am

I check the Daily Wail every day, and their Brexit article actually had prints of the Yellowhammer document, which was unusually precise for them :mrgreen: so I decided to find my own copy :mrgreen: The government website doesn't make it easy. I searched Operation Yellowhammer on the govt home page, with no direct results, and it's actually under the third item: "government response to humble address motion". Not good.

This is the direct link, rather than going through all the faff: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.u ... ns_CDL.pdf
Some of it is pretty stark, and item no 15 is redacted altogether - my guess is that's specifically about anti-terrorism, because the entirety of item 10 is this: "law enforcement data and information sharing between UK and EU will be disrupted."

Lil's point about fuel prices is spot on: this is the entirety of item 17: "Low income groups will be disproportionately affected by any price rises in food and fuel". No sh--, Sherlock :(

I wasn't a happy bunny before today, but reading this I'm an actual unhappy bunny. I was thinking of making a family visit during the last week in October, which would have meant travelling home (300 miles across the country) on Friday 1 November. Now, no, I don't think so!
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Arzosah
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Re: Brexit in October?

Post by Arzosah » Thu Sep 12, 2019 8:50 am

I just found the text of what's said to be item 15, on another forum:

'Tariffs make UK petrol exports to the EU uncompetitive. Industry had plans to mitigate the impact on refinery margins and profitability, but UK government policy to set petrol import tariffs at 0% inadvertently undermines these plans. This leads to big financial losses and the closure of two refineries (which are converted to import terminals) with about 2,000 direct job losses. Resulting strike action at refineries would lead to disruptions to fuel availability for 1 - 2 weeks in the regions they directly supply. Government analysis of the impact of no deal on refineries continues.'
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Deeps
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Re: Brexit in October?

Post by Deeps » Thu Sep 12, 2019 10:18 am

Arzosah wrote:
Thu Sep 12, 2019 8:38 am
I check the Daily Wail every day, and their Brexit article actually had prints of the Yellowhammer document, which was unusually precise for them :mrgreen: so I decided to find my own copy :mrgreen: The government website doesn't make it easy. I searched Operation Yellowhammer on the govt home page, with no direct results, and it's actually under the third item: "government response to humble address motion". Not good.

This is the direct link, rather than going through all the faff: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.u ... ns_CDL.pdf
Some of it is pretty stark, and item no 15 is redacted altogether - my guess is that's specifically about anti-terrorism, because the entirety of item 10 is this: "law enforcement data and information sharing between UK and EU will be disrupted."

Lil's point about fuel prices is spot on: this is the entirety of item 17: "Low income groups will be disproportionately affected by any price rises in food and fuel". No sh--, Sherlock :(

I wasn't a happy bunny before today, but reading this I'm an actual unhappy bunny. I was thinking of making a family visit during the last week in October, which would have meant travelling home (300 miles across the country) on Friday 1 November. Now, no, I don't think so!
To be fair, its a 'worst case' scenario, not a racing certainty. Easy to miss that bit, it doesn't get much mention in amongst all the plagues of locusts etc. None of us know what's going to happen, even the Government which is worrying in itself but it doesn't mean its all going to be 'as advertised in Op Yellowhammer'.

featherstick
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Re: Brexit in October?

Post by featherstick » Thu Sep 12, 2019 12:12 pm

It's not the worst case, it's the baseline planning assumptions. The document was leaked a month ago with the title "HMG Planning Assumptions - Base Scenario". They just changed this to "Reasonable Worst Case Planning Scenario" on Monday. The content is the same. They are lying to us.

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Deeps
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Re: Brexit in October?

Post by Deeps » Thu Sep 12, 2019 12:40 pm

featherstick wrote:
Thu Sep 12, 2019 12:12 pm
It's not the worst case, it's the baseline planning assumptions. The document was leaked a month ago with the title "HMG Planning Assumptions - Base Scenario". They just changed this to "Reasonable Worst Case Planning Scenario" on Monday. The content is the same. They are lying to us.
Not the case. At the time of the leak it was still the 'worst case'. Depending on your preferred media outlet, they may have played up or played down the 'worst case' caveat. We'll all believe what we want to believe though.

I agree that they lie to us though, pretty much all of them.

Arzosah
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Re: Brexit in October?

Post by Arzosah » Thu Sep 12, 2019 12:41 pm

Deeps wrote:
Thu Sep 12, 2019 10:18 am
To be fair, its a 'worst case' scenario, not a racing certainty. Easy to miss that bit, it doesn't get much mention in amongst all the plagues of locusts etc. None of us know what's going to happen, even the Government which is worrying in itself but it doesn't mean its all going to be 'as advertised in Op Yellowhammer'.
Well, yes - but even if you accept the new title (Reasonable Worst Case, which may or may not be a lie, but yes, they lie all the time) I'm a prepper, which means forethought about possible issues and all that 8-) - and I'm not going to set myself up to travel from Liverpool to the south coast of England on the first day of leaving, not if I can possibly avoid it. Three huge population centres, and everything has to work perfectly - no sit-ins, no strikes, no Extinction Rebellion protests, no sabotage, no political gestures from groups we haven't heard about yet (I travel through Liverpool Lime Street, Euston, Kings Cross, St Pancras, London Bridge and Gatwick Airport, it's a lot). My chronic fatigue runs rampant at stressful times. There's already a hugely stressful personal event that week, we're driving to Yorkshire to lay my mother's ashes to rest. Plagues of locusts don't enter into it, not for me.
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jansman
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Re: Brexit in October?

Post by jansman » Thu Sep 12, 2019 5:42 pm

Arzosah wrote:
Thu Sep 12, 2019 12:41 pm
Deeps wrote:
Thu Sep 12, 2019 10:18 am
To be fair, its a 'worst case' scenario, not a racing certainty. Easy to miss that bit, it doesn't get much mention in amongst all the plagues of locusts etc. None of us know what's going to happen, even the Government which is worrying in itself but it doesn't mean its all going to be 'as advertised in Op Yellowhammer'.
Well, yes - but even if you accept the new title (Reasonable Worst Case, which may or may not be a lie, but yes, they lie all the time) I'm a prepper, which means forethought about possible issues and all that 8-) - and I'm not going to set myself up to travel from Liverpool to the south coast of England on the first day of leaving, not if I can possibly avoid it. Three huge population centres, and everything has to work perfectly - no sit-ins, no strikes, no Extinction Rebellion protests, no sabotage, no political gestures from groups we haven't heard about yet (I travel through Liverpool Lime Street, Euston, Kings Cross, St Pancras, London Bridge and Gatwick Airport, it's a lot). My chronic fatigue runs rampant at stressful times. There's already a hugely stressful personal event that week, we're driving to Yorkshire to lay my mother's ashes to rest. Plagues of locusts don't enter into it, not for me.
Arzosah,what you described there reminds me of a book I read! :D You know the one.What you said there is quite sensible though.
In three words I can sum up everything I have learned about life: It goes on.

Robert Frost.

Arzosah
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Re: Brexit in October?

Post by Arzosah » Thu Sep 12, 2019 6:38 pm

Oh it does, doesn't it! Spot on, jansman :) :lol:

I still might have to do the trip that week :( juggling the calendars of 3 adults with vastly different lives to get a 5 day break at a month's notice ... its not the greatest thing in the world.

Sorry for the hijack! But actually, this is part of it, people all over the country might be starting to think about these decisions. Half term holiday anyone?
My blog (all mended now) www.preparednessfactandfiction.co.uk
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featherstick
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Re: Brexit in October?

Post by featherstick » Fri Sep 13, 2019 12:35 pm

Government says it has no duty to ensure access to food supplies in No Deal, expects commercial sector to step in.

https://www.sustainweb.org/blogs/sep19_ ... DRWewb_P7U

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