2020 Potential Economic Collapse

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diamond lil
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Re: 2020 Potential Economic Collapse

Post by diamond lil » Fri Oct 16, 2020 1:12 pm

Featherstick, I always listen to you. You're usually spot on. Off now to catch up on the news :shock:

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Arwen Thebard
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Re: 2020 Potential Economic Collapse

Post by Arwen Thebard » Fri Oct 16, 2020 2:34 pm

I'm definitely coming around to the importance of skill values in any 'barter' system scenario, much more so than holding onto paper cash or precious metals and even seeds, food stocks and other tangible assets which have a limited life term. If we were to experience a really serious economic crash, then cash might retain its use for a [very] short period IMO, gold and silver a little longer, but I'm now thinking it would probably be a good idea to get rid of both pretty soon after a crash (if not before!) and buy up whatever is available, before they become worth nothing.
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jansman
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Re: 2020 Potential Economic Collapse

Post by jansman » Fri Oct 16, 2020 3:45 pm

Ferfal Aguirres,the author of 'Surviving The Economic Collapse',detailed that event in Argentina in 2000. The banks corralled money ( the Corrallito),and everyone had to live on their wits.That meant hustling.Barter started,but as soon as the banks let people have limited cash,cash took back over again.People also took to trading in US Dollars where they could,rather than the Peso,which was near worthless.Gold and silver became a trading medium too,and dealers would take individual links of necklaces etc. for cash,which people used to buy the necessities pf life.

Back to bartering; Ferfal said that initially it was a lifeline for people.Overnight, markets sprang up where people went to trade.A bit like our carboot sales.However,it soon became apparent that ( for example), you have a surplus of eggs,and you are desperate for aspirin.You find achap who has aspirin.Trouble is,that chap keeps fowls! He doesn't need the only thing you have to trade.That soon became the problem.
In three words I can sum up everything I have learned about life: It goes on.

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grenfell
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Re: 2020 Potential Economic Collapse

Post by grenfell » Fri Oct 16, 2020 4:04 pm

Land would probably be the ideal thing to buy. With land one has the opportunity to grow things or graze animals , space to produce if there is a monetery crisis. I tend to think pm's will retain their allure and value , off the top of my head i can't think of an historical precedent for them losing all their value and if you have land to grow vegetables you could easily be in a position to grow wealthy trading those vegetables for shiney bits of metal. That's assuming any potential crisis is long lasting. Incidentaly on another forum i use one poster did say that he had invested in precious metals but they weren't gold or silver coloured , they were green and yellow and had 'john deere" written on the side.
I don't disagree that bartering will increase but i do have serious doubts as to how big a percentage of the remaining economy it will occupy. I've mentioned bartering on non prepping related forums and the responses haven't even been lukewarm. Very very few have responded that they involve in trade that way , most haven't and a significant percentage wouldn't entertain the idea. I also wonder how much ability people might have to barter as well. I've traded work for goods and i've also traded time for time which is the simplest form of barter even if it raises the question of differing worths of people's time. I charge more than the book keeper/accountant that we occasionally use and she insisted on giving me more hours than i gave her. On another occasion recently i traded a days work with a fork lift driver who again was on a lower rate of pay but on that one it was just a simple day for day swop of labour. I didn't feel i had lost out but others may have done. I suppose the logical extension of that is there would be a glut of people offering a days labour for goods which in any economy is going to drive down the value of such work .
As it is i think we're going to scrape through this year and we'll probably have to start a "collapse in 2021" thread.
incidentally , i know we don't really do conspiracies , but there seems to be a train of thought amongst some that this pandemic is being used to wind down the global economy extending the collapse period rather than just letting it come to a crashing halt. Interesting but can't say i believe it as i frankly can't see TPTB being that smart and coordinated to pull it off.

redskies
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Re: 2020 Potential Economic Collapse

Post by redskies » Fri Oct 16, 2020 9:34 pm

featherstick wrote:
Fri Oct 16, 2020 12:58 pm
No Deal Brexit more likely than ever following today's announcement. Check your preps. And yes, the country probably will collapse.


To be fair, it was probably going to do that anyways!

redskies
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Re: 2020 Potential Economic Collapse

Post by redskies » Fri Oct 16, 2020 9:36 pm

Arwen Thebard wrote:
Fri Oct 16, 2020 2:34 pm
I'm definitely coming around to the importance of skill values in any 'barter' system scenario, much more so than holding onto paper cash or precious metals and even seeds, food stocks and other tangible assets which have a limited life term. If we were to experience a really serious economic crash, then cash might retain its use for a [very] short period IMO, gold and silver a little longer, but I'm now thinking it would probably be a good idea to get rid of both pretty soon after a crash (if not before!) and buy up whatever is available, before they become worth nothing.
That's our perspective, Arwen. Get rid of cash on what you can get, then use skills to get what you need.

redskies
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Re: 2020 Potential Economic Collapse

Post by redskies » Fri Oct 16, 2020 9:37 pm

jansman wrote:
Fri Oct 16, 2020 3:45 pm
Ferfal Aguirres,the author of 'Surviving The Economic Collapse',detailed that event in Argentina in 2000. The banks corralled money ( the Corrallito),and everyone had to live on their wits.That meant hustling.Barter started,but as soon as the banks let people have limited cash,cash took back over again.People also took to trading in US Dollars where they could,rather than the Peso,which was near worthless.Gold and silver became a trading medium too,and dealers would take individual links of necklaces etc. for cash,which people used to buy the necessities pf life.

Back to bartering; Ferfal said that initially it was a lifeline for people.Overnight, markets sprang up where people went to trade.A bit like our carboot sales.However,it soon became apparent that ( for example), you have a surplus of eggs,and you are desperate for aspirin.You find achap who has aspirin.Trouble is,that chap keeps fowls! He doesn't need the only thing you have to trade.That soon became the problem.
The folk in Argentina seem to be quite different to us, in terms of keeping some chickens or other livestock, that sort of thing. I think the biggest trouble here would be stopping someone from nicking your chickens rather than trading with you!

GillyBee
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Re: 2020 Potential Economic Collapse

Post by GillyBee » Sat Oct 17, 2020 6:55 pm

We are explicitly banned from keeping chickens by our tenancy lease. That would probably change pretty quick if TPTB decided that we all needed to produce our own eggs. Rabbits are OK but would need very good foxproof enclosures as we are overrun by them.
I suspect the local love of feeding the foxes and encouraging overpopulation would take a rapid nosedive if SHTF. We have already had some problems this year with vermin during lockdown, presumably because the food supply from the nearby restaurant waste bins dried up. Which is a point - I must check my stock of rat poison. If it all goes belly up in January, the hungry beggars will be invading my garden en masse again.

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jennyjj01
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Re: 2020 Potential Economic Collapse

Post by jennyjj01 » Sat Oct 17, 2020 7:22 pm

GillyBee wrote:
Sat Oct 17, 2020 6:55 pm
Which is a point - I must check my stock of rat poison. If it all goes belly up in January, the hungry beggars will be invading my garden en masse again.
Don't poison them: That renders them inedible :)
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jansman
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Re: 2020 Potential Economic Collapse

Post by jansman » Sat Oct 17, 2020 7:50 pm

GillyBee wrote:
Sat Oct 17, 2020 6:55 pm
We are explicitly banned from keeping chickens by our tenancy lease. That would probably change pretty quick if TPTB decided that we all needed to produce our own eggs. Rabbits are OK but would need very good foxproof enclosures as we are overrun by them.
I suspect the local love of feeding the foxes and encouraging overpopulation would take a rapid nosedive if SHTF. We have already had some problems this year with vermin during lockdown, presumably because the food supply from the nearby restaurant waste bins dried up. Which is a point - I must check my stock of rat poison. If it all goes belly up in January, the hungry beggars will be invading my garden en masse again.
Keeping stock, as I always have, poison is a major prep. Killing vermin is a constant battle. The only good rat/ mouse is a dead one. As for foxes, they all need exterminating. Until you have had your entire poultry stock killed by one, and your best buck rabbit too, you will never understand; and don’t say you need better housing, as foxes are tenacious, murderous vermin.
In three words I can sum up everything I have learned about life: It goes on.

Robert Frost.

Covid 19: After that level of weirdness ,any situation is certainly possible.

Me.

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