2020 Potential Economic Collapse

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Nurseandy
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Re: 2020 Potential Economic Collapse

Post by Nurseandy » Sat May 16, 2020 12:21 pm

That is good idea for a stove. Will be trying that too.
On the topic of Jerry cans I have filled up my motorbike tanks that have been empty over the winter but I can't see the logic of buying new jerry cans to take advantage of low fuel costs. If we're saving 30p a litre that's £1:50 per 5 litre can. It costs more to buy the can than you'll be saving or have I missed something?

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peejay
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Location: Midlands, UK

Re: 2020 Potential Economic Collapse

Post by peejay » Sat May 16, 2020 3:28 pm

I'd been thinking about getting some jerry cans for some time & finally pulled the trigger just as the pandemic started kicking off. Got around to filling one yesterday, thought I might as well as it's likely at its cheapest now.

grenfell
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Re: 2020 Potential Economic Collapse

Post by grenfell » Sat May 16, 2020 5:19 pm

Nurseandy wrote:
Sat May 16, 2020 12:21 pm
That is good idea for a stove. Will be trying that too.
On the topic of Jerry cans I have filled up my motorbike tanks that have been empty over the winter but I can't see the logic of buying new jerry cans to take advantage of low fuel costs. If we're saving 30p a litre that's £1:50 per 5 litre can. It costs more to buy the can than you'll be saving or have I missed something?
Valid point of course. I suppose that we tend to view it as a little more resilience than a cost saving as such. Same as a lot of preps actually tie up money as assets and don't always work as a hedge against inflation. I tend to use petrol in my tools and the majority is probably consumed in the summer and i suppose filling a jerry can or two at the end of the year is taking a gamble that the prices will rise by the summer. I feel that even if it doesn't i haven't really lost anything , i still have the petrol and the cans won't really wear out so still an asset.

grenfell
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Re: 2020 Potential Economic Collapse

Post by grenfell » Sun May 17, 2020 8:28 am

Leaked treasury report puts a figure on how much this is or could cost
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52663523
Could be as high as £337B just for this year.

jansman
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Re: 2020 Potential Economic Collapse

Post by jansman » Sun May 17, 2020 3:00 pm

grenfell wrote:
Sun May 17, 2020 8:28 am
Leaked treasury report puts a figure on how much this is or could cost
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52663523
Could be as high as £337B just for this year.
I read a nice little article the other day,and the author said that the government are currently reluctant to insist on the compulsory wearing of masks,because it failed to do so right at the beginning.Had we practiced the social distancing we now take for granted,the government spent a few million on several reusable face masks for every person,we wouldn't have a totally trashed economy. Makes you think...
In three words I can sum up everything I have learned about life: It goes on.

Robert Frost.

Covid 19: After that level of weirdness ,any situation is certainly possible.

Me.

grenfell
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Re: 2020 Potential Economic Collapse

Post by grenfell » Sun May 17, 2020 5:38 pm

With the current trend of making masks out of tee shirts and socks amongst other things perhaps if they'd have promoted that far earlier it would have had the same effect with practically no outlay from the country's coffers. Still hindsight and all that...

jansman
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Re: 2020 Potential Economic Collapse

Post by jansman » Sun May 17, 2020 5:57 pm

grenfell wrote:
Sun May 17, 2020 5:38 pm
With the current trend of making masks out of tee shirts and socks amongst other things perhaps if they'd have promoted that far earlier it would have had the same effect with practically no outlay from the country's coffers. Still hindsight and all that...
Bang on! Personally, I think we have overblown a virus( whilst serious) is up there with normal influenza ( check the death rate) and cancer deaths per day- 450. Now we are headed for the greatest Depression since the 30’s.
In three words I can sum up everything I have learned about life: It goes on.

Robert Frost.

Covid 19: After that level of weirdness ,any situation is certainly possible.

Me.

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peejay
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Location: Midlands, UK

Re: 2020 Potential Economic Collapse

Post by peejay » Sun May 17, 2020 8:36 pm

One needs to keep the numbers in perspective - 450 deaths a day with 80% of the population staying at home/distancing. Given how people are reacting to the reduction in lockdown I rear there's going to be a significant spike in a couple of weeks.

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omega man
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Re: 2020 Potential Economic Collapse

Post by omega man » Sun May 17, 2020 10:39 pm

It will indeed be interesting to see what happens when we attempt a return to some semblance of normality... it feels like a lifetime we've been locked down but realistically it's been six months since the news broke proper.

Have we overblown it or have we actually managed a half-assed flattening of the curve?

Ironically it'll be the fear of the looming depression that'll deliver us the answer very shortly, as far as I'm aware there is still no vaccine, and our testing mission thus far leaves a lot to be desired. The vulnerable are still just that.

So we loosen the lock down gradually and hope the numbers are 'manageable' or we're lucky and it turns out of the 80% about to start mixing again most have already had it asymptomatically ? unlikely. Common sense says the odds are high we'll see a resurgence, the size of....unknown.

Personally I'm nervous, feels like more limitations on our liberty and nobody needs a depression, period. From what I see across the net we'd may as well remove the word Potential from this threads title.

I've started changing and moving a few things financially myself, lost a few extravagances and tightened the purse strings. As a couple the Wife and I have had a frank discussion and re-evaluated how we see the next 12 months in terms of aims/goals, it's going to be less fun but we're feeling less anxious with some realistic (estimated) expectations.

With no crystal ball We can only prepare and be cautious... the chips will fall where they may, It's 'novel' after all.

OM
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It is no measure of health to be well adjusted to a profoundly sick society.

-Jiddu Krishnamurti

Bosworth
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Re: 2020 Potential Economic Collapse

Post by Bosworth » Sun May 17, 2020 10:47 pm

There won’t be a vaccine and it will infect most of us at some point in the next 18 months.

The only questions are:
- how many will die - depends on mutations, availability of critical care, and disruption to other emergency healthcare
- how expensive lives saved will be

The vast majority of people dying are economically unproductive or of limited productive capacity. The virus could sweep through the population and kill 15% f vulnerable people with only a nominal impact on economic productivity.

We are choosing to pay a collect financial price to save the lives of unproductive people.

That I believe is the right choice but it will become very hard to defend very soon.

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