Strategy and the black swan.
I’ve really enjoyed reading this forum and its various posts and threads, arguments and debate’s. It’s interesting to see the vast array of what people are prepping for. I’d be really interested on people s views/ideas on something that I’ve been playing with in my mind for a while and which I’m going to try and put into words!!
For me the answers too many of the questions asked, are in the strategy. The individual solutions and maybe necessary equipment will be different for each person/situation but my principle is to try and define an over arching strategy to be able to plan a head and be able to apply this to individual circumstances and situations. So this would be equally applicable to a person bugging in as a person bugging out, long term preps or last minute, prepping for unemployment or TEOTWAWKI.
To do this I think you have to ask yourself some really tough questions and answer them (to yourself) honestly.
For me I did not practice initially what I’m preaching (well ‘expressing my opinion’, for what its worth). Why? because I only grasped this later, I been very lucky in many ways but I’ve made many many mistakes along the way, a lot of these I could have avoided and therefore got to where I am a lot quicker. In truth before I moved too my current location and “bugged out” I thought I was vastly over prepared and had all the knowledge I required to do so easily, Massively and stupidly over confident is an understatement!!!! oops and believe me it was only days in and the SHTF. At that point a few bottles of rum where required and a definite rethink was in order before everything went FUBAR!! The truth is if it had been for real I and my family would have died.
To cut a very long story to a manageable length. During my rum induced thoughting I realised my TEOTWAWKI had happened and I was no longer preparing for it!! It was just of my own choosing and if I wanted to continue with my plan/project I had to treat it that way. I had the luxury of making that decision. In the future it may not be a choice. I had already committed all my resources to my endeavour, which most of my family/friends said would collapse in weeks if not days!! They where so close to being right!! All of the sudden I realised to achieve what I wanted to achieve was impossible so my first goal was just to survive, So obviously I had to pull up my breeches, ignore all the good advice and get on with it, until I irrevocably fell flat on my face, which I did daily but managed to get up without anyone noticing. Several times I thought I was there and had cracked it and along would come a black swan and FMO!! So I started using some old unused planning skills to combat this. Eventually I realised I was building a strategy for survival and it was based around being prepared. I also took to the net (well a least when the wind was blowing!) and did much research, joined a few forum s listened to other peoples experiences, problems and solutions, here I am now, eight years on with a bit of time on my hands. Believe me I know I don’t have the answers but I just maybe have found some of the right questions.
This first question seems to be “what I am preparing for” I seen it already in several posts and endlessly discussed across the net.
Answers ranging from Armageddon to my house burning down, well is that not a round about way of saying “well I want to survive”.
My first question would be “really ? do you? At what cost” ?
The answer would give you a sharp inclination as to the motivation of a person if they immediately assume cost to be monetary!!! Obviously money is a consideration but for me it’s no where near top of the list. Simply because you can plan and prep on a very, very limited budget and in some ways it gives you an advantage as you are 'living it' not 'thinking it'.
Consider you are lucky you have your ghb, bov, bob, the tshhtf and you get away early and toddle off to your perfect bol. Success!! But Hang on! You also have an aging mum and dad who had, whenever the subject had been brought up, said they weren’t going anywhere and said you should go but they might store a bit of food and water just in case, just to keep you happy. Eventually and unbelievably out the blue its happened. You knew you always wanted to try a bit harder to persuade them to do more but never quite got round to it. So you are sitting there sipping you first hot cup of tea in your comfy bol when, as its early days, your parents get through to your mobile, crying, desperate, bleeding, gang of youths broke in beat them up stole everything? They are only an hour away, you have fuel. What do you do? Maybe one parent is already dead, equally apply the same sort of situation to your teenage or grown up kids. Maybe they missed a rendezvous and have been mugged. Again what do you do?
Maybe you are even more fortunate and every one near and dear to you is with you at you comfy well stocked bol No worries, umm!! in the “bug out” the antibiotics got left behind you are two weeks in and you find your 3 year old child has got a cut that’s gone septic and has a raging temp. You also have two other children. What do you do? Sit and watch the child die, go for help, try and go back and find the antibiotics. These are the black swans sent to FY and your plans over, its only when you truly visually how everything could go horribly wrong and you consider what you think you will or will not be prepared to do in those circumstances can you truly start to prepare because the place it all starts is in your head.
So I think the first question people need to answer is do you really want to survive and more importantly what are you prepared to lose to do so. Only then can you really start to make plans.
Strategy and the black swan
Re: Strategy and the black swan
But a black swan is, by definition, impossible to predict. If you can prepare for it it is not a black swan.
This is the reason why many people don't prepare against specific causes but against outcomes.
Not earthquake, storm, asteroid fall or zombie attack but against being too cold, too hot, hungry, dark, ill and so on.
Whatever the cause the outcome is covered.
This is the reason why many people don't prepare against specific causes but against outcomes.
Not earthquake, storm, asteroid fall or zombie attack but against being too cold, too hot, hungry, dark, ill and so on.
Whatever the cause the outcome is covered.
Re: Strategy and the black swan
You (and i) can debate scenarios's till the cows come home, i have a file full of various scenarios but until TSHTF you wont know how it will play out, it could be vastly different to anything you thought, maybe those old parents will change their mind and come with you, maybe the kids are by your side not miles away when it happens, all you can do is plan and sort out your preps as best you can. in my case "how much do you want to survive-at what cost?" AT ANY COST is the reply, i intend to survive no matter what i have to do. i WILL be a survivor, any other outcome is not valid.
Re: Strategy and the black swan
Sorry should have put this in the post so there s no ambiguity,
The black swan theory or theory of black swan events is a metaphor that describes an event that is a surprise (to the observer), has a major impact, and after the fact is often inapproprately rationalized with the benefit of hindsight.
The theory was developed by Nassim Nicholas Taleb to explain:
The disproportionate role of high-impact, hard-to-predict, and rare events that are beyond the realm of normal expectations in history, science, finance and technology
The non-computability of the probability of the consequential rare events using scientific methods (owing to the very nature of small probabilities)
The psychological biases that make people individually and collectively blind to uncertainty and unaware of the massive role of the rare event in historical affairs
The black swan theory or theory of black swan events is a metaphor that describes an event that is a surprise (to the observer), has a major impact, and after the fact is often inapproprately rationalized with the benefit of hindsight.
The theory was developed by Nassim Nicholas Taleb to explain:
The disproportionate role of high-impact, hard-to-predict, and rare events that are beyond the realm of normal expectations in history, science, finance and technology
The non-computability of the probability of the consequential rare events using scientific methods (owing to the very nature of small probabilities)
The psychological biases that make people individually and collectively blind to uncertainty and unaware of the massive role of the rare event in historical affairs
Re: Strategy and the black swan
Hmm intresting read and I have already thought of family not being near, and as much as I would love them all to be with me they may not be. You then have to start thinking of their partners and their partners family's. So my answer is this if you are family and you can get to me fine if you bring partners family not so good and they may be turned away unless they can bring something to the pot, there can be safty in numbers but these people that I may not know very well could bring trouble. My bug out my rules I was the one who had the brains to preppear and I was the one that had to spend years being thought Strange by the rest of the family
As for losing a loved one already thought of after all I have an ederly mother and she wont live for ever and she came form the generation that still had high infant deaths, also thought of is how to get rid of the bodys fire being the best way.
What am I prepping for havent got a clue am I willing to make tough choses YES will I survive Im going to give it a hell of a good try.
As for losing a loved one already thought of after all I have an ederly mother and she wont live for ever and she came form the generation that still had high infant deaths, also thought of is how to get rid of the bodys fire being the best way.
What am I prepping for havent got a clue am I willing to make tough choses YES will I survive Im going to give it a hell of a good try.
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Re: Strategy and the black swan
Very interesting and thought provoking thread!
"do you really want to survive and more importantly what are you prepared to lose to do so?"
I don't think I would truely know until I was in a situation. I'd like to think I know how strong minded, positive etc I would be but I am not sure if many of us really would know until we had to face a grim situation. Chatting about /discussing it over a nice cup of tea, is one thing, but in reality .... Also you would change over time, due to the sum of your experiences. How you deal with something and the choices you make in the early stages of a senario may well change come week 6, month 4 etc.
"do you really want to survive and more importantly what are you prepared to lose to do so?"
I don't think I would truely know until I was in a situation. I'd like to think I know how strong minded, positive etc I would be but I am not sure if many of us really would know until we had to face a grim situation. Chatting about /discussing it over a nice cup of tea, is one thing, but in reality .... Also you would change over time, due to the sum of your experiences. How you deal with something and the choices you make in the early stages of a senario may well change come week 6, month 4 etc.
"Today is the tomorrow that you worrried about yesterday" - unknown
"Smoke me a kipper, I'll be back for breakfast" - Red Dwarf
(Area 3)
"Smoke me a kipper, I'll be back for breakfast" - Red Dwarf
(Area 3)
Re: Strategy and the black swan
If you look at history, there have been many climactic events that at the time would have been highly troubling to those involved. Take the fall of the Roman Empire, look at what happened, did people in the British Isles run around like headless chickens, or did they get on with their lives, and take the subsequent invasions and predations in their stride. whatever they did they survived. Such events are common in the history of the world, some events are more dramatic than others. Are we currently in a similar situation?
What are people doing in areas of the world where such events are occurring now?
Do you see mass migration, refugee camps set up in the home counties to house those fleeing from London for whatever reason?
Do you envisage a breakdown of the food supply chain, leaving people scavenging for food, perhaps a government stepping in to ration foodstuffs?
Is the breakdown of Government and law and order a realistic possibility? Read history, the siege of Paris in the Franco Prussian War is a interesting event of modern times with the cost of dogs, cats and rats inflating but the day as they got scarcer.
If you want to decide a strategy you need to formulate in your mind just how a serious event you have to prepare for.
I personally have few ties to the UK, and do not really believe that sky will fall tomorrow. I do however believe that the world as we know it is going through a period of radical change with new powers rising, old powers dissolving, and upheaval following in the wake of this, not everywhere but probably in areas where it is not the norm.
My personal strategy in the face of this scenario is to enjoy myself, go sailing, visiting new places, well stocked, and become a refugee, migrant, whatever you chose, I can easily live in comfort, well fed and watered, with no power concerns for a year or more if I put my mind to it, but that is not unusual on a yacht. Small scale has its benefits, Beleza is about the size of a small flat, with her decks replacing garden space.
In the UK we have become slaves to the Government and big business, tied to houses that get more expensive to keep and run yet are worth less and our freedoms eroded daily, I have been lucky and can escape and the sea is still relatively free but becoming less so, though luckily for me I can still arrive in a foreign country and not be viewed as an illegal immigrant because I arrive in a sailing boat.
Sorry if the above is a load of rambling personal observations, but I hope there may be some value in them
What are people doing in areas of the world where such events are occurring now?
Do you see mass migration, refugee camps set up in the home counties to house those fleeing from London for whatever reason?
Do you envisage a breakdown of the food supply chain, leaving people scavenging for food, perhaps a government stepping in to ration foodstuffs?
Is the breakdown of Government and law and order a realistic possibility? Read history, the siege of Paris in the Franco Prussian War is a interesting event of modern times with the cost of dogs, cats and rats inflating but the day as they got scarcer.
If you want to decide a strategy you need to formulate in your mind just how a serious event you have to prepare for.
I personally have few ties to the UK, and do not really believe that sky will fall tomorrow. I do however believe that the world as we know it is going through a period of radical change with new powers rising, old powers dissolving, and upheaval following in the wake of this, not everywhere but probably in areas where it is not the norm.
My personal strategy in the face of this scenario is to enjoy myself, go sailing, visiting new places, well stocked, and become a refugee, migrant, whatever you chose, I can easily live in comfort, well fed and watered, with no power concerns for a year or more if I put my mind to it, but that is not unusual on a yacht. Small scale has its benefits, Beleza is about the size of a small flat, with her decks replacing garden space.
In the UK we have become slaves to the Government and big business, tied to houses that get more expensive to keep and run yet are worth less and our freedoms eroded daily, I have been lucky and can escape and the sea is still relatively free but becoming less so, though luckily for me I can still arrive in a foreign country and not be viewed as an illegal immigrant because I arrive in a sailing boat.
Sorry if the above is a load of rambling personal observations, but I hope there may be some value in them
Re: Strategy and the black swan
I know I am going to stir up a hornets nest here, especially with the 'old & bold', but Malamute Mitch has an extremely good point.So I think the first question people need to answer is do you really want to survive and more importantly what are you prepared to lose to do so. Only then can you really start to make plans.
Every single day I consider our (OH & I) survival.
Now, I dont think TEOTWAWKI is seconds away and walk around in a CBRN suit; I simply pick extra food up when it's on offer in the super market, or buy a torch when on a 'buy one got one free' to store away.
I dont have an eloborate water filtration system; my water stocks include 70litres of bottled evian - because it was on offer.
I have 60 odd lighters. I'm not Dot Cotton.
I have 100 odd batteries - I'm not R2D2
I hope, to my Lord saviour, that WT*HTF does come my wife and I can lock the door, eat a few tinned meals that arent as appealing as the usual Sunday roast, then go back to normal; but I am not naive.
I once read a book by a famous self defence expert; he taught a ladies self defence class once and advised, as a last resort, biting. A woman then told him she would rather be raped than bite another human being...
I have never seen a forum on this site decend in to 'Americanesque' self defence nonsence because one person said they were willing to defend their family so why do we leap upon those who dare mention defence?
I am a God fearing man, I am a family man, I have never been in trouble with the police.
I will defend my home.
So I think the first question people need to answer is do you really want to survive and more importantly what are you prepared to lose to do so. Only then can you really start to make plans.
Re: Re: Strategy and the black swan
Because although by law we are allowed to use reasonable force to defend ourselves, we do not have anywhere the leniency of the laws across the pond. If people start talking about weapons for self defence, stockpiling arms and ammunition and are later involved in a 'self defence' incident they will quickly find themselves in deep hot water, legally speaking.the7ps wrote:
I have never seen a forum on this site decend in to 'Americanesque' self defence nonsence because one person said they were willing to defend their family so why do we leap upon those who dare mention defence?
I am a God fearing man, I am a family man, I have never been in trouble with the police.
I will defend my home.
There are plenty of alternative forums for discussion of these kind of topics, just not here on UKP.
Unfortunately prepping and survivalism attracts the beans bullets and bunkers brigade, but that's a million miles from what we are, and why this site is here. It is for these reasons why threads and posts about self defence are frowned upon here.
I don't want to and can't run a site and forum with that kind of discussion and information on.
Hope that helps!
By failing to prepare, you are preparing to fail - Benjamin Franklin
Re: Strategy and the black swan
Guns kill, that is a fact.
I agree mate, there is no place for 'nutters' stockpiling for an 'armageddon'.
My only concern is for the prepper who works so hard, only for some thug who's moral compass is amiss, to come 'acropper'.
No malice or anger meant to all.
I agree mate, there is no place for 'nutters' stockpiling for an 'armageddon'.
My only concern is for the prepper who works so hard, only for some thug who's moral compass is amiss, to come 'acropper'.
No malice or anger meant to all.